According to the analysis of experts from the National Agricultural Technology Center, which organizes scientific research, teaching and promotion units, it is expected that the locusts in the agricultural areas will be close to normal in 2018, and the populations of the East Asian locusts, the Tibetan locusts and the northern farming and pastoral areas will occur moderately, and the Asian locusts will be lighter. occur. Among them, the East Asian migratory locusts occur in the areas along the Huangtan area, the Bohai Bay and the Huabei Lake, and the Tibetan locusts are partially biased in the valleys of the Jinsha River, the Yalong River and the Yarlung Zangbo River. The northern part of Xinjiang and the central part of Inner Mongolia are heavily biased. It is estimated that the area of ​​flying locusts will be 16.9 million mu, and the area of ​​control indicators will reach 11.6 million mu. The area of ​​soil mites in agricultural areas will be 36 million mu, and the area of ​​control indicators will reach 12 million mu.
Trend
East Asian migratory locusts occur in moderately, Henan Zhengzhou Huiji, Jiaozuo, Fuyang, Shandong Weifang Xiashan Reservoir, Hezeyucheng, Hebei Yinzhou Nandagang Reservoir, Yangxun Reservoir, Baoding Baiyangdian, Tianjin Beidagang, Shanxi Yuncheng Wanrong, Linyi In the local areas of Shaanxi Hannan, Datun, Hainan, and other places, there will be high-density spots. It is estimated that the area will be 15 million mu, and the area of ​​prevention and control indicators will be 10 million mu.
The Tibetan locusts occurred in Sichuan and most of the Changchun area in Tibet, and the river valleys such as the Jinsha River, the Yalong River and the Yarlung Zangbo River were partially biased. It is estimated that the area will be 1.4 million mu, and the area of ​​prevention and control indicators will be 1.2 million mu.
Asian locusts occur lightly, and high-density gregarious sputum spots may occur in the northern part of Jilin Province and in the south part of Heilongjiang Province. It is not possible to exclude the possibility of flying locusts in the northern part of Xinjiang. It is estimated that the area will be 500,000 mu, and the area of ​​prevention and control indicators will be 400,000 mu.
Northern farming and pastoral areas have occurred in moderately, with Xinjiang Tacheng, Altay, Yili, Bozhou, Chifeng, Tongliao, Wulanchabu, Xilin Gol League, Baotou and Hohhot in Inner Mongolia, north, northeast, northwest and northwest. Other major areas occur moderately. It is estimated that the agricultural area will have an area of ​​36 million mu, and the area of ​​prevention and control indicators will be 12 million mu.
Forecast basis
(1) The base number of East Asian migratory locusts, Tibetan locusts and locusts is higher than that of the previous year, and the base number of Asian locusts is low. According to the survey, the area of ​​East Asian locusts and autumn wreckage is 7.232 million mu, respectively, compared with the previous year and nearly 3 The annual average value decreased by 4.2% and 9.8%; the average residue density was 12.8 per mu, which was 25.3% and 20.2% higher than the average of the previous year and the past three years respectively. The number of residual insects increased by 20.1% compared with the previous year, which was higher than the average of the past three years. 8.2%. Henan Zhengzhou Huiji, Jiaozuo, Fuyang, Shandong Weifang Xiashan Reservoir, Heze Yucheng, Hebei Yinzhou Nandagang Reservoir, Yangxun Reservoir, Baoding Baiyangdian, Tianjin Beidagang, Shanxi Yuncheng Wanrong, Linyi, Shaanxi Weinan Hancheng, Da Hey, Hainan Dongfang and other places have found more than 100 high-density debris spots per mu, covering an area of ​​74,000 mu, which is 10.9% and 18.2% lower than the previous year and the average of the past three years.
The area of ​​the locust in Tibet's agricultural area is 55,000 mu, which is 66.7% and 77.4% higher than the previous year and the average of the past three years. The average residue density is 5.5 per mu, which is lower than the average of the previous year and the past three years. 23.6% and 19.9%, the number of insects increased by 27.3% and 41.8%, respectively, from the previous year and the average of the past three years.
The area of ​​Asian locust remains is 172,000 mu, which is the same as that of the previous year, which is 25.1% lower than the average of the past three years. The average wreck density is 1.5 per mu, which is lower than 2.7 in the previous year and 2.9 in the past three years. The number of residual insects decreased by 44.9% and 61.9%, respectively, from the previous year and the average of the past three years.
The area of ​​soil debris in the northern farming and pastoral areas was 16.269 million mu, which was the same as that of the previous year. The average residue density was 1071.9 per mu, up 16.9% year-on-year, and the average value of the past three years increased by 41.9%. The area of ​​debris density exceeding 2,000 per mu was 4.074 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, slightly higher than the average of the past three years. Xinjiang Tacheng, Altay, Yili, Bozhou and Inner Mongolia Wulanchabu City Chayouhou Banner have a residual density of more than 20,000 per mu.
(2) The meteorological conditions and habitats in winter and spring are generally favorable for the occurrence of locusts. In the winter of 2017, the temperature in the northern part of North China, Huanghuai and northeastern Sichuan is 1-2 °C, and the temperature in most parts of Tibet is close to normal. The East Asian migratory locusts and the Tibetan migratory locusts are favorable for wintering; the northern Xinjiang and other places have low temperatures, which is unfavorable for the wintering of Asian locusts. In the spring of 2018, most of the temperature in the reclamation area was higher than normal, and the precipitation was 1-2% less than normal. It was conducive to hatching and pupa development. There is no obvious change in the ecological environment of the Feifei Changfa District. However, the change of water level in the near-water source areas such as reservoirs, lakes and wetlands around the agricultural area is likely to form a new occurrence area of ​​the planthopper.
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