Soybean Industry Chain Information Early Warning Conference Analyst Yang Jiuzhun
From the consumer side, the consumption of domestic soybeans is mainly divided into four parts: commodity beans, protein beans, oil beans, and soybean varieties.
As the spread between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans exceeds RMB 1,000/ton, the prices of downstream products are difficult to converge, and consumption of oil soybeans has dropped sharply, and the proportion of edible beans has increased. Taking into account the decline in raw material prices this year, the country's non-GM soybean crush will increase, but the total amount is not large, is expected to consume about 80 million tons.
Soy protein with a protein content of more than 40% will be preferentially digested in the protein market. The main demand is protein processing plants in Shandong and other places. The monthly demand is in the tens of thousands of tons, accounting for half of the monthly soybean consumption in Heilongjiang Province. , And the downstream demand is strong, corporate stocks are low, and demand growth is stable. Protein bean demand this year is estimated at 1.5 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous year. The export volume of protein plant products is large and the genetic testing is relatively strict. Test strips need to be inspected at the links of grain harvesting. Therefore, the import soybean blending is more difficult, and the demand for non-genetically modified soybeans is rigid.
The standard of commodity beans is higher, and it is mainly used for the consumption of tofu and soya milk. The total amount has been relatively stable and is estimated to be around 10 million tons. However, due to the large price gap between domestic soybeans and imported beans, the replacement of commodity beans in the southern ports is relatively common, and radiation to inland sales areas has affected the consumption of domestically produced soybeans. The total amount of substitution is expected to be around 3 million tons, and will continue to expand. This is the main factor that domestic soybeans can't get out of the independent market despite the supply gap.
According to market estimates, this year's soybean production was nearly 10 million tons, down 2 million tons year-on-year, and all consumption items were slightly increased. There was a slight gap in non-genetically modified soybeans in 2015/2016. From the perspective of Heilongjiang Province, the round of reserve acquisitions started at the beginning of the listing period, with a target of 800,000 tons, and at least 400,000 tons by the end of December 2015; the protein plant turned to northern procurement, and the current purchase volume is 80,000 tons. There is still one in the plant. Half-month inventory, the pace of short-term procurement will not be particularly compact; crushing companies have purchased a small amount.
In general, compared with the output of more than 3 million tons, the surplus in the hands of farmers still accounts for a significant proportion, and there will be no short-term shortage in the short-term. The price will still follow the market. According to the directional guidance of imported soybeans and the market price judgments, the main observation is whether the pressure drop before and after the spring broadcast can occur, as well as the phased impact of the policy nodes such as the State's temporary reserve bankroll and auctions.
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